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Parameter
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Separate model (Model I)
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Joint model (Model III)
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|---|
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Posterior mean
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95% HPD CI
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Posterior mean
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95% HPD CI
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|---|
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Semiparametric longitudinal submodel for FEV
1
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Curve
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\(\beta_{0}\), intercept
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18.57
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[16.33, 20.68]
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16.89
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[14.63, 20.39]
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\(\beta_{1}\), age
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2.846
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[2.545, 3.143]
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3.121
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[2.74, 3.382]
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\(\beta_{2}\), \({\text{age}}^{2}\)
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− 0.1295
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[− 0.1393, − 0.1197]
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− 0.1367
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[− 0.1481, − 0.124]
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\(\beta_{3}\), \({\text{age}}^{3}\)
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− 0.0012
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[− 0.0014, − 0.0009]
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− 0.0016
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[− 0.0017, − 0.0014]
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\(b_{1}\)
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0.0058
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[0.0044, 0.0077]
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0.0073
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[0.0058, 0.0084]
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\(b_{2}\)
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0.0083
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[0.0076, 0.0089]
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0.0103
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[0.0095, 0.0111]
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\(b_{3}\)
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− 0.0143
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[− 0.0187, − 0.0114]
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− 0.0206
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[− 0.0248, − 0.0167]
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\(b_{4}\)
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− 0.0023
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[− 0.0056, 0.0027]
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0.0029
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[− 0.001, 0.0085]
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\(b_{5}\)
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0.0041
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[− 0.0015, 0.0101]
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0.0015
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[− 0.0033, 0.007]
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\(b_{6}\)
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− 0.0011
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[− 0.012, 0.0102]
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0.0008
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[− 0.0095, 0.0101]
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Baseline FEV1
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0.6828
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[0.6722, 0.6933]
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0.6834
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[0.6676, 0.6945]
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Male
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− 0.1665
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[− 0.6403, 0.3137]
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− 0.1650
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[− 0.6054, 0.2971]
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Birth cohort
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< 1981
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11.37
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[9.651, 12.97]
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12.39
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[10.89, 13.95]
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1981–1988
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3.766
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[2.749, 4.839]
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4.936
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[3.995, 5.916]
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1989–1994
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− 0.1912
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[− 0.698, 0.3584]
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0.0608
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[− 0.4059, 0.5908]
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> 1994 (reference)
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Lower SES
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− 0.6318
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[− 1.075, − 0.1686]
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− 0.5984
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[− 1.062, − 0.1119]
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CFRD
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− 0.4528
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[− 0.765, − 0.1465]
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− 0.3695
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[− 0.6731, − 0.0633]
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MRSA
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− 0.8209
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[− 1.033, − 0.6121]
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− 0.8114
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[− 1.016, − 0.6134]
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B. cepacia
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− 0.8318
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[− 1.531, − 0.1367]
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− 0.7705
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[− 1.441, − 0.1022]
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|
Pa
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− 0.5661
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[− 0.6963, − 0.4314]
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− 0.5673
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[− 0.6971, − 0.4373]
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Sources of variation
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\(\sigma^{2}\) (measurement error)
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59.29
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[58.83, 59.76]
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59.24
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[58.77, 59.73]
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\(\sigma_{0}^{2}\) (between patients, intercept)
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324.9
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[307.6, 342.2]
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326.8
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[311, 343.8]
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\(\sigma_{1}^{2}\) (between patients, slope)
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2.566
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[2.441, 2.694]
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2.602
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[2.484, 2.727]
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\(\sigma_{01}\) (covariance, intercept and slope)
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− 25.51
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[− 26.82, − 24.16]
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− 25.76
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[− 27.11, − 24.49]
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Weibull event submodel for pulmonary exacerbation
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\(k\)
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2.467
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[2.395, 2.537]
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2.564
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[2.487, 2.634]
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Intercept
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− 3.705
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[− 3.988, − 3.416]
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− 3.568
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[− 3.804, − 3.296]
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\(\theta_{0}\) (random intercept)
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–
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–
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− 0.0086
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[− 0.0137, − 0.0036]
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\(\theta_{1}\) (random slope)
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–
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–
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− 0.3532
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[− 0.4104, − 0.2979]
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Baseline age
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− 0.0021
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[− 0.0187, 0.0147]
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0.0023
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[− 0.0131, 0.0176]
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Baseline FEV1
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− 0.0158
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[− 0.0178, − 0.0138]
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− 0.0198
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[− 0.0218, − 0.0179]
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Male
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− 0.2973
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[− 0.3618, − 0.2314]
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− 0.2940
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[− 0.3606, − 0.2267]
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Birth cohort
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< 1981
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− 0.3785
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[− 0.7538, − 0.0028]
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− 0.5348
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[− 0.9056, − 0.1726]
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1981–1988
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− 0.1805
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[− 0.3947, 0.0182]
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− 0.2348
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[− 0.4405, − 0.0339]
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1989–1994
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0.1431
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[0.031, 0.2544]
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0.1261
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[0.0178, 0.2335]
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> 1994 (reference)
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Lower SES
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0.1173
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[0.049, 0.1872]
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0.1059
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[0.0382, 0.1804]
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- * In the Bayesian sense, a 95% CI that excludes zero indicates statistical significance at the 0.05 level. Parameters \(b_{1} - b_{6}\) are regression coefficients of the cubic truncated power functions defined in “Appendix 1”
